絲杠導(dǎo)軌是高精密直線傳動系統(tǒng)的核心部件，下游應(yīng)用廣泛，國產(chǎn)化率低。本篇報告分析了絲杠導(dǎo)軌行業(yè)國產(chǎn)化率低的主要原因；在人形機(jī)器人和新能源汽車的產(chǎn)業(yè)趨勢下，國產(chǎn)絲杠導(dǎo)軌有望進(jìn)入快速發(fā)展階段；長期來看，在以機(jī)床為代表的高端領(lǐng)域，隨著整機(jī)廠競爭力的提升、政策引導(dǎo)支持力度的加大，絲杠導(dǎo)軌實(shí)現(xiàn)自主可控是必然趨勢。因此我們認(rèn)為國產(chǎn)絲杠導(dǎo)軌正迎來產(chǎn)業(yè)化的重要機(jī)遇，給予行業(yè)“”評級。

　　The screw guide rail is the core component of high-precision linear transmission systems, widely used downstream, and has a low localization rate. This report analyzes the main reasons for the low localization rate in the screw guide industry; Under the trend of humanoid robots and new energy vehicles, domestic screw guides are expected to enter a stage of rapid development; In the long run, in the high-end field represented by machine tools, with the improvement of the competitiveness of complete machine manufacturers and the increase of policy guidance and support, it is an inevitable trend for screw guides to achieve independent controllability. Therefore, we believe that domestic screw guides are facing an important opportunity for industrialization and give the industry a "recommended" rating.

　　絲杠導(dǎo)軌是高精密直線傳動的核心部件。1）絲杠的主要作用是定位，并將旋轉(zhuǎn)運(yùn)動轉(zhuǎn)換為直線運(yùn)動，驅(qū)動導(dǎo)軌運(yùn)動。絲杠按結(jié)構(gòu)可分為梯形絲杠、滾珠絲杠和行星滾柱絲杠，其中滾珠絲杠因傳動效率高、壽命長，是目前主流的絲杠產(chǎn)品；行星滾柱絲杠加工難度大，產(chǎn)業(yè)化應(yīng)用較少，主要用于對承載力、體積要求高的場景。2）導(dǎo)軌的作用是支承運(yùn)動構(gòu)件并使其按規(guī)定方向運(yùn)動。導(dǎo)軌按結(jié)構(gòu)可分為滑動導(dǎo)軌、滾動導(dǎo)軌和液體靜壓導(dǎo)軌，其中滑動導(dǎo)軌適用于低精度重切削，滾動導(dǎo)軌適用于高精度、高速輕加工；液體靜壓導(dǎo)軌結(jié)構(gòu)復(fù)雜，制造成本高，實(shí)際應(yīng)用較少。

　　The screw guide is the core component of high-precision linear transmission. 1) The main function of a screw is to position and convert rotational motion into linear motion, driving the movement of the guide rail. Screw can be divided into trapezoidal screw, ball screw, and planetary roller screw according to their structure. Among them, ball screw is currently the mainstream screw product due to its high transmission efficiency and long service life; The processing difficulty of planetary roller screw is high, and its industrial application is limited. It is mainly used in scenarios with high requirements for bearing capacity and volume. 2) The function of the guide rail is to support the moving components and make them move in the specified direction. According to their structure, guide rails can be divided into sliding guide rails, rolling guide rails, and hydrostatic guide rails. Sliding guide rails are suitable for low precision heavy cutting, while rolling guide rails are suitable for high-precision, high-speed light machining; The structure of liquid hydrostatic guide rail is complex, the manufacturing cost is high, and its practical application is limited.

　　絲杠導(dǎo)軌全球市場空間達(dá)千億，國內(nèi)超300億，機(jī)床是主要的下游。根據(jù)Value Market Research數(shù)據(jù)，2019年全球滾動部件的市場規(guī)模為195.48億美元（折合人民幣約1300億元）。根據(jù)金屬加工雜志社，2022年我國滾動功能部件市場空間約為330億元。下游應(yīng)用包括數(shù)控機(jī)床、半導(dǎo)體制造裝置、醫(yī)療器械、工業(yè)機(jī)器人、自動化設(shè)備、3C設(shè)備、汽車等，其中機(jī)床是主要的應(yīng)用領(lǐng)域。

　　The global market space for screw and guide rails is billions, with over 30 billion in China, and machine tools are the most important downstream. According to Value Market Research data, the global market size for rolling parts in 2019 was $19.548 billion (approximately RMB 130 billion). According to the Metal Processing Magazine, the market space for rolling functional components in China is expected to reach approximately 33 billion yuan in 2022. Downstream applications include CNC machine tools, semiconductor manufacturing equipment, medical devices, industrial robots, automation equipment, 3C equipment, automobiles, etc. Among them, machine tools are the most important application field.

　　絲杠導(dǎo)軌是機(jī)床傳動系統(tǒng)的重要部件，精度要求高，但占整機(jī)的價值量較低（約5%-9%），預(yù)計(jì)機(jī)床絲杠導(dǎo)軌的需求合計(jì)約百億元體量。在機(jī)床中，一般是2套直線導(dǎo)軌副及1套滾珠絲杠副組成一個方向的直線運(yùn)動系統(tǒng)。絲杠導(dǎo)軌直接影響到機(jī)床的加工性能，因此精度要求高，絲杠一般在P5級以上，導(dǎo)軌一般在P級以上。絲杠導(dǎo)軌（不包括其他傳動零部件）合計(jì)占機(jī)床整機(jī)成本的5%-9%，根據(jù)機(jī)床市場空間，我們測算得到相關(guān)絲杠導(dǎo)軌需求約百億。

　　The screw guide is an important component of the machine tool transmission system, with high precision requirements, but it accounts for a relatively low value of the entire machine (about 5% -9%). It is estimated that the total demand for machine tool screw guide is about 10 billion yuan. In machine tools, a linear motion system is generally composed of two sets of linear guide pairs and one set of ball screw pairs in one direction. The screw guide directly affects the machining performance of the machine tool, so high precision is required. The screw is generally above P5 level, and the guide is generally above P level. The total cost of screw guides (excluding other transmission components) accounts for 5% -9% of the total cost of machine tools. Based on the market space of machine tools, we estimate that the demand for related screw guides is about 10 billion yuan.

　　外資主導(dǎo)市場，國產(chǎn)化率低。歐美企業(yè)具有先發(fā)優(yōu)勢，且擁有軸承、液壓件、高精密磨床等產(chǎn)業(yè)優(yōu)勢，技術(shù)，屬于梯隊(duì)。20紀(jì)80年代開始，日本THK、NSK、IKO等公司伴隨著日本的機(jī)床、半導(dǎo)體、汽車制造業(yè)等行業(yè)成長起來，成為主要生產(chǎn)廠家，屬于第二梯隊(duì)。20世紀(jì)90年代后期，臺灣的HIWIN、ABBA、PMI公司及韓國的SBC也嶄露頭角，作為后發(fā)者，產(chǎn)品突破后主打性價比，抓住了制造的發(fā)展機(jī)遇，在市場享有較高的市場份額，屬于第三梯隊(duì)。大陸的絲杠導(dǎo)軌企業(yè)數(shù)量較少，以國企為主，積累時間短，單個企業(yè)體量較小。

　　Foreign investment dominates the market, with a low localization rate. European and American enterprises have a first mover advantage, as well as industrial advantages such as bearings, hydraulic components, and high-precision grinding machines. They are technologically advanced and belong to the first tier. Since the 1980s, Japanese companies such as THK, NSK, and IKO have grown alongside Japan's machine tool, semiconductor, and automotive manufacturing industries, becoming major manufacturers and belonging to the second tier. In the late 1990s, HIWIN, ABBA, PMI companies in Taiwan, China, China, and SBC in South Korea also emerged. As latecomers, their products broke through the price performance ratio, seized the development opportunity of Made in China, and enjoyed a high market share in the Chinese market, belonging to the third echelon. There are relatively few screw and guide rail enterprises in mainland China, mainly state-owned enterprises, with a short accumulation time and a small individual enterprise size.

　　我國絲杠導(dǎo)軌與進(jìn)口產(chǎn)品的差距主要體現(xiàn)在精度保持性、批量生產(chǎn)的穩(wěn)定性和一致性。精度保持性指維持在初始精度的時間，國產(chǎn)絲杠導(dǎo)軌即使出廠精度能達(dá)到P3級以上，后續(xù)也很難在機(jī)床整個壽命周期中維持在這一高精度。批量生產(chǎn)的一致性和穩(wěn)定性指生產(chǎn)一批絲杠，能達(dá)到標(biāo)準(zhǔn)要求的產(chǎn)品比例，國產(chǎn)雖然能做到P0~P2級的高精度產(chǎn)品，但一致性和穩(wěn)定性較差，導(dǎo)致無法大規(guī)模供應(yīng)。

　　The gap between China's screw guide and imported products mainly lies in the accuracy retention, stability and consistency of mass production. Accuracy retention refers to the time it takes to maintain the initial accuracy. Even if the precision of domestic screw guides can reach P3 level or above at the factory, it is difficult to maintain this high precision throughout the entire life cycle of the machine tool. The consistency and stability of mass production refer to the proportion of products that can meet the standard requirements for producing a batch of lead screws. Although domestic products can achieve high-precision products of P0~P2 levels, the consistency and stability are poor, resulting in the inability to supply on a large scale.

　　國產(chǎn)產(chǎn)品落后于進(jìn)口的背后，是整個產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈各個環(huán)節(jié)（包括設(shè)計(jì)、原材料、制造設(shè)備、加工工藝、檢測方法、質(zhì)量管控等）都存在差距。我們認(rèn)為絲杠導(dǎo)軌多年來未實(shí)現(xiàn)國產(chǎn)化的原因主要是以下2點(diǎn)：1、高精度產(chǎn)品的工藝壁壘未突破：①國內(nèi)缺少高質(zhì)量的原材料；②進(jìn)口螺紋磨床昂貴，交期長達(dá)半年以上，投資門檻高；③工藝復(fù)雜，工序多，其中涉及多次磨削、熱處理、檢測環(huán)節(jié)，國內(nèi)缺少有經(jīng)驗(yàn)的、會使用高端磨床的工人。2、產(chǎn)業(yè)化缺乏動力：①絲杠導(dǎo)軌過去主要的應(yīng)用領(lǐng)域在機(jī)床，對于機(jī)床來講，絲杠導(dǎo)軌屬于重要性極高，但價值量占比較低的產(chǎn)品，因此機(jī)床廠商沒有動力試用國產(chǎn)；②過去國產(chǎn)機(jī)床整機(jī)廠的實(shí)力不強(qiáng)，進(jìn)口零部件能夠起到保證質(zhì)量的作用。

　　Behind the backwardness of domestic products compared to imports is the gap in every link of the entire industry chain, including design, raw materials, manufacturing equipment, processing technology, testing methods, quality control, etc. We believe that the main reasons for the lack of localization of screw guides over the years are as follows: 1. The technological barriers to high-precision products have not been overcome: ① There is a lack of high-quality raw materials domestically; ② Imported thread grinders are expensive, with lead times of over six months and high investment barriers; ③ The process is complex and involves multiple steps, including multiple grinding, heat treatment, and testing. There is a lack of experienced workers in China who can use high-end grinding machines. 2. Lack of motivation for industrialization: ① In the past, the main application area of screw guides was in machine tools. For machine tools, screw guides were highly important but had a relatively low value, so machine tool manufacturers did not have the motivation to try domestic products; ② In the past, the strength of domestic machine tool manufacturers was not strong, and imported parts could play a role in ensuring quality.

　　人形機(jī)器人和新能源汽車有望加速絲杠導(dǎo)軌國產(chǎn)化到來。1、需求端：①新產(chǎn)業(yè)機(jī)遇帶來的市場空間廣闊，新能源汽車中絲杠的單車價值量較燃油車有3倍的提升，百萬臺人形機(jī)器人帶來百億級絲杠需求；②車用對絲杠的精度要求低，成本要求高，更愿意使用國產(chǎn)以降本；③人形機(jī)器人所需的反向式行星滾柱絲杠目前僅歐系企業(yè)有量產(chǎn)能力（日系、臺系均沒有相關(guān)產(chǎn)品），歐系企業(yè)面對新趨勢、新方向時更保守，不會大規(guī)模擴(kuò)產(chǎn)進(jìn)行降本，國產(chǎn)一旦實(shí)現(xiàn)產(chǎn)品突破，更有可能成為主流供應(yīng)商；④機(jī)床整機(jī)廠的實(shí)力不斷增強(qiáng)，國內(nèi)終端客戶對國產(chǎn)機(jī)床的認(rèn)可度明顯提升，政策持續(xù)推進(jìn)機(jī)床核心零部件國產(chǎn)化。2、供給端：國內(nèi)涌現(xiàn)出許多企業(yè)投入絲杠導(dǎo)軌行業(yè)，積極迎接新的產(chǎn)業(yè)趨勢，其中有定位高端、有資金、有實(shí)力的企業(yè)，也有定位中低端（車用）、有量產(chǎn)能力的企業(yè)，改變了過去國企為主的競爭格局。

　　Humanoid robots and new energy vehicles are expected to accelerate the localization of screw guides. 1. On the demand side: ① The market space brought by new industry opportunities is vast, and the single vehicle value of lead screws in new energy vehicles is three times higher than that of fuel vehicles. Millions of humanoid robots bring a demand for lead screws in the billions level; ② The precision requirements for lead screws in vehicles are low, and the cost requirements are high. They are more willing to use domestically produced screws to reduce costs The reverse planetary roller screw required for humanoid robots is currently only mass-produced by European companies (neither Japanese nor Taiwanese have related products). European companies are more conservative when facing new trends and directions, and will not expand production on a large scale to reduce costs. Once domestic products achieve product breakthroughs, they are more likely to become mainstream suppliers The strength of machine tool manufacturers continues to strengthen, and the recognition of domestic end customers for domestically produced machine tools has significantly increased. Policies continue to promote the localization of core components of machine tools. 2. On the supply side: Many domestic enterprises have emerged to invest in the screw and guide rail industry, actively embracing new industry trends. Among them, there are high-end, financially strong enterprises, as well as mid to low-end (automotive) enterprises with mass production capabilities, which have changed the competitive landscape dominated by state-owned enterprises in the past.

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